I'm Convinced We Won't See 3G iPhone at WWDC

With all these rumors of boxes in warehouses, faked iPhone print ads, and secret envelopes from Apple, it's a wonder we haven't seen more actual photos of the 3G iPhone.

My prediction: we won't be able to buy the 3G iPhone next week. In a month, maybe. I think next week is all about iPhone 2.0 and iPhone OS. Afterall, WWDC is all about developers, developers, developers.

iPhone 2.0 Interface Video (Fake But Cool)

This is an impressive video, a fake, that looks like it's the introduction of the 3G iPhone from Steve Job's upcoming presentation at WWDC. It features a home screen that goes into landscape mode when turned on its side. It has shows messages popping up on the home screen along with various controls on the home screen.

Something to Think About the 3G iPhone's FCC Approval

Remember this iPhone tidbit from a statement from Apple on April 12, 2007 announcing Leopard's delay?

"iPhone has already passed several of its required certification tests and is on schedule to ship in late June as planned."

Yep, Apple was kept up-to-date about the exact level of approval the iPhone had garnered up to that point, even though it hadn't been officially approved by the FCC.

Also, according to the FCC's own filing, the iPhone had been signed off on by the testers by April 19, even though the official approval didn't come until May 17, 2007. Not sure what this means, but it's interesting to remember going in to WWDC.

Tech Jokers Gizmodo "Confirms" 3G iPhone Launch at WWDC

Some people take Gizmodo too seriously. They become offended when they see Gizmodo post porn next to their gadget news or pull adolesecent pranks at trade shows. If you know that Gizmodo is written for 14-year-old boys, then you'll understand their style. That said, you need to take the same context for their announcement today of the 3G iPhone:

"We all suspected it, but now it is confirmed: sources close to the 3G iPhone launch have told Gizmodo that Apple will announce their new model at the WWDC Keynote on June 9th. The second-generation iPhone will be available worldwide right after the launch, and not at year's end, as previously thought. The new model will also herald new sales policies in some countries."

Citing unnamed sources "close to the 3G iPhone launch" is not equal to a confirmation. If they had an email from Apple's PR, that would be a confirmation. There are a bunch of reasons why Gizmodo's article is shady. First off, they only say the 3G iPhone will be "announced" at WWDC and will go on sale "right after the launch." So, when exactly is that? Wouldn't a confirmation give you a hard date for the iPhone going on sale?

The truth is, the iPhone has not been approved by the FCC yet, so nothing can be confirmed. There is no confirmation, and my "sources close to the situation" say Gizmodo is making up shit to drive pageviews.

$150 mil Blackberry Fund vs $100 iPhone iFund: Fight!

Research in Motion is matching Apple and seeing them one half better with their $150 million Blackberry Partners fund to invest in developers for their mobile platform.

"The BlackBerry Partners Fund will focus on evaluating companies in all regions of the world and investing in the long term success of those that demonstrate market leadership and unique differentiation," said John Albright, Managing Partner of JLA Ventures, who will also assume the role of Co-Managing Partner of the BlackBerry Partners Fund. "Whether it's access to corporate data or the latest craze in mobile entertainment, we want to fund companies that are forerunners in driving adoption and further enriching the mobile experience."

With Google's Android, Apple's iPhone, and now RIM, one wonders if there are enough developers to go around. The iPhone is the sexiest and most fun device to develop for and will attract the most creative developers, but RIM has a huge market and potential for larger profits.

Link to press release.

Will Apple Allow AT&T to Discount the iPhone?

Arik Hesseldahl from BusinessWeek in the article , "Why AT&T May Deep-Discount the iPhone."

With less than two months to go before Steve Jobs takes the stage at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, where he's expected to unveil a new iPhone, it appears that AT&T may not be convinced that new bells and whistles will be enough to get droves of new customers to switch from other wireless carriers. So after a year of charting a new wireless business model by selling the vaunted iPhone at premium prices, the nation's biggest phone company may resort to the oldest trick in the cellular book: big discounts.

Gruber from Daring Fireball seems to disagree with Hesseldahl's logic.

The problem is this: why would Apple allow AT&T to sell iPhones for half the price of what iPhones cost in Apple’s own stores (including this one)?

Subsidies only work when they’re sold in conjunction with two-year contracts. It’s possible that Apple could do the same, and sell subsidized AT&T-contract iPhones in Apple Stores, but that would mean abandoning the innovative (and very appealing, very successful) model of activating a new iPhone at home, via iTunes, rather than sitting around in a store for 45 minutes making uncomfortable small talk with a salesman while waiting for your credit check and your old phone number to transfer over.

You’d think this might be worth a mention.

From a financial aspect, Apple allowing deep discounting makes a lot of sense. The more wireless-plan contracts that AT&T can pick up, the more profit there is for Apple via revenue sharing. This is on top of the profit Apple makes on the sale of the hardware alone. A good percentage of the iPhones that Apple sells in its stores are bulked shipped around the world to places like Russia, which supposedly has amassed a market of 500,000 unlocked iPhones. These unlocked phones make Apple less money because they lost out on revenue sharing.

But the real problem with the deep discounting process is the customer experience, which is extremely important to Apple. To get a discounted phone, usually you have to sit with a rep in the store or on the phone as they take your credit card and have you sign the contracts, etc. Once the wireless plan is activated, then they charge you the discounted price for the phone and you walk out of the store with your new phone. I agree with Gruber: there's not a snowball's chance in hell Apple will allow this in Apple stores. And there's a bunch of reasons why Apple wants you take your iPhone home and activate it by hooking it up to iTunes. But, is it there a way Apple could maintain its retail customer service experience and still allow the discount?

Here's an idea: there are two seperate approaches for the $200 discount, one for AT&T stores and one for Apple stores.

In AT&T stores, a customer must suffer the pain of sitting in the store through the finance check and contract signing. At the end, customers can walk out of the store able to make phone calls with their $200 iPhone. But what about iTunes? Apple surely wants those users to connect to iTunes and buying all that media right? That's where the iPhone updates and the SDK comes in. People still have to connect it to iTunes if they want all that cool shit that's going to come out soon. Not to mention the iPhone is the "world's best iPod." Of course people are going to hook it to iTunes.

But with the Apple retail store shopping experience, nothing changes. You're still getting the same minimalist experience. You have to buy the iPhone at full price, and you can still ship it to Mother Russia or the Congo or wherever to be unlocked. Or, you can take it home, activate it, and AT&T cuts you a $200 credit to your account or a rebate check. I think the typical Apple shopper will forgo the instant discount for the convenience and coolness of shopping in the Apple store. The typical AT&T store shopper? Probably not.

The Times: Apple's 3G iPhone Order Is Already In to Manufacturers

British newspaper The Times is reporting that Apple has already placed its order for the 3G iPhone.

"Times Online understands that Apple has placed an order with its Asian suppliers to produce 200,000 of the new 3G iPhones by the end of May, rising to 2 million - 500,000 per week - in June."

It's important to note that the iPhone is not currently being manufactured. The FCC hasn't yet approved the device yet, and due to the public nature of FCC documentation, as soon as it's approved we will know (but not before the actual approval). So, it's possible that Apple has sent over the schematics and has run the numbers past the manufacturers and is now shooting the breeze waiting for the FCC.

Is the iPhone undergoing the FCC approval process right now? If they were, I'd think Apple would have introduced the 3G iPhone already. Since Apple doesn't control when the FCC releases the approval documentation, they could be taking a chance that the documentation would be released before they could announce the 3G phone and place their own marketing spin on it. Of course, maybe Apple doesn't care so much anymore about complete and total secrecy and control now that the initial iPhone has been long released to the world. I wouldn't bank on that though.

Will the 3G iPhone Need FCC Approval?

There's been talk that the release of a 3G iPhone is just around the corner. Most of the rumors come from financial analysts who pay attention to things like the amount of product inventory of stores. Apparently, they've noticed that the availability of iPhones has begun to dry up and claim Apple is clearing out old stock for the new. If true, they say, the 3G iPhone is merely weeks away.

There's one small catch. The FCC needs to approve the phone, as an entirely new radio (3G) is being introduced into it. According to Compliance Engineering Magazine, this process takes a while:

"Depending on the FCC workload, product certification could take from 60 to more than 100 days. "

The initial filing for FCC device approval is not public record, only the FCC's final stamp of approval is. So people trolling through the pages of the FCC's website won't find anything until the iPhone is actually approved. Apple submitted the first iPhone on March 9, 2007 and received approval on May 17, 2007. The process took a little over two months. Apple chose to announce the first iPhone well before they even submitted to the FCC, but whether they'll do the same again is unknown.

Required reading: FCC device approval documentation.