Apple has a phone but won't have an SDK for a couple of months. Google doesn't have a phone but has an SDK. So really, it won't be until next summer until both are on level playing fields. What it may come down to is who attracts more and better developers. I hate to quote Steve Ballmer, but it's the developers, developers, developers.
A great core system is built by the giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google. But the diversity--the catering to the long tail--is done by the developers.
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